SHEETFED OFFSET TO GROW 0.3% CAGR TO 2029

Print industry research analyst Smithers is making the prediction that sheetfed offset volumes will grow by 0.3 per cent CAGR over the next five years.

Smithers also says the value of sheetfed offset will grow at 1.4 per cent CAGR to 2030. The figures are global, and may not be reflective of mature economies like Australia and New Zealand, where commercial sheetfed offset has struggled to maintain volumes.

The outlook for digital is more positive. According to Smithers, volumes will increase faster at 5.5 per cent CAGR from 1.95 trillion A4 prints in 2024, up to 2.41 trillion in 2029. 

The Smithers report says digital is directly displacing litho in several applications – notably through the use of inkjet for print-on-demand books, advertising, and transactional print. This will be partially compensated for by new demand for sheetfed litho in packaging, but here it is also in competition with gravure and flexo. 

Smithers says the economic disruption of Covid-19 cut print volumes severely. Global output fell by 10 per cent, from 49 trillion A4 equivalents in 2019 to 44 trillion in 2024 and, said Smithers, is a figure that has little prospect of recovery to pre-pandemic levels.

Offset was significantly impacted by this, with major falls in both volume and value of heatset and coldset litho, especially for newspaper and magazine print. This reflects the wider transition from physical to electronic media and the trend is set to continue across the rest of the decade.

However, In cash terms across the same period, the value of sheetfed offset work rose slightly from US$887bn in 2019 to $898bn in 2024. 

In technology terms, Smithers notes press manufacturers are producing faster machines with higher automation, reducing the need for labour, and improving productivity, including on shorter run lengths. 

It says in digital printing inkjet developers are also improving speed, including via greater automation; as well as resolution and print quality. New machines are under development for the packaging segment, leveraging experience gained in narrow web label print, to exploit demand for digital print on corrugated board, folding cartons, and flexible packaging.